Monday, April 12, 2021

"Infrastructure", Deja-vu and Austerity Hawks

The jackhammer has been turned off, the virus is "under control" and the roaring 20s are at it again.

One of those statements is truer than the other two - I will let you decide which is for yourself as credible arguments could be made for all three.

Biden like Brezhnev has turned off the jackhammer (Trump/Khrushchev) - the ancien regime has returned ever glorious and ordinary people have nothing to worry about. (no sarcasm detected)

Trump cast out to his dacha in Mar-a-Lago endures political and digital exile courtesy of commissar elites and the KGB woke political commentators and the social media surveillance state. 

Seems the Hunter Biden narrative was true. Although to be fair to the President, a screw up drug addicted son with a penchant for meth, prostitutes and the wisdom to allegedly upload it to a pornhub account isn't a failing of Joe Biden, his policies, previous work or presidency but rather entirely on his 50 year old son - who managed to burn down his family and career in drug fueled orgies (at least as reported by himself and by the Mail).

Make meth teeth great again?

Democrats to their credit - seem to have learned from both 2008 and Donald Trump's presidency. It turns out if you spend massive amounts of public money to stimulate the economy - you get investor confidence and growth. And given the USD is the global reserve currency, Americans can (for now) lean into that for recovery purposes.

The tragedy of this all is that there is some good policy to be found in the "Infrastructure" Bill. Climate change is real and a move towards electric vehicles and greater renewables is smart. America has had the advantage in these spaces for the last 25 years but has largely squandered that lead due to non-existent political will and government dysfunction. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers are very quickly approaching parity with Tesla and could pose an existential threat to American/European Western global automaker market share.

To Biden's credit, he is one of the few democrats who understands that the future of that party's success depends on supporting working class initiatives - the woke SJW vote on the other hand risks sinking the entire progressive enterprise. The threat of a charismatic Trump or Trump 2.0 speaking the working man's language could result in the end of American democracy. Biden has figured out that doubling down on working class policies could possibly prevent that.

Trump's greatest failure is that despite speaking 'normal' English - he never delivered anything beyond an institutional Republican agenda that largely targeted working class and poor people - the very constituency he depended on to win

But he is an avid golfer, and there is no better example of a mulligan. Why not make an extra swing and run once more? There is no Republican competition.

For the record, I am predicting a Trump / Hawley ticket - unless of course the orange haired lunatic dies over the next 2-3 years. The challenge for democrats is that behind their hollow hero lies a plastic vice president best known for keeping innocent men on death row - while sitting on evidence that would exonerate them.

To be fair, Hawley is about as plastic Harris. His anti-elite Yale Law School pedigree speaks to the depth of his message and credibility of his character.

As for the virus, the American turn around is a miracle tied to publicly funded MRNA vaccine research that both Pfitzer and Moderna are profiting from (no judgment here) just very, very lucky timing.

The Brazilian variant does pose a serious risk over the next year however - the large scale ramp up and possibility of tweaking MRNA vaccine instructions to target other elements of the mutated P1 variant means that the planet should have this under control sometime over the next 2 to 4 years.

The American government on the other hand is making the mistake of not buying the vaccine outright and making it public source globally. This would be an easy geo-political victory against both Moscow and more importantly Beijing. The corporate lobby will sink it - more likely than not....

As for the mainstream Republican and Democratic party elite, they are both dead and entirely devoid of ideas. On one hand, the GOP wants to assert that austerity is the solution to an unprecedented demand collapse. The Dems on the other hand are equally or even more delusional, leaning hard on identity politics as a potential alternative to real injustices whether collapse of meritocratic outcomes, cronyism and mass government overreach. 

The American system is plagued by too many organizational layers of government (not just the 50 states) - where no single area for accountability resides (cities, counties, districts, etc). 

The fact that it took over three years for a multi-millionaire comedian - Bill Maher to get his garden shed permitted for solar speaks to the scale of the problem. In the midst of this, Biden is trying to launch a large scale infrastructure bill that will rebuild infrastructure that has been systemically squandered and mismanaged by local governments across the US.  

I for one am betting that the levels of government that took three years to permit a shed - won't be able to effectively deliver on even a quarter of the Infrastructure Bill's promises.