It seems like my last post of 2020 was bang on in terms of predicting post election violence as dismayed Trump supporters were led on to believe the election was stolen from them. The media and political types are selling the line that these folks were all extremists and that a domestic terrorism statute be implemented. What they are largely missing is that these protests are really a social phenomenon of a large disaffected white working class that feels sold out. The Washington Post to its credit reported on the severe financial problems and desperation of many of the participants in the insurrection something which most other media agencies largely have ignored.
As for the proposed law enforcement response, this is just the US security apparatus trying to justify its own existence. It is easier to justify state suppression than it is to warrant programs that might fix some of the deep seeded social problems through policies such as a $15 dollar minimum wage, basic health insurance or an end to the war on drugs and private prisons. Its funny had Trump moved on any of these initiatives and had he responded to the virus - he likely would have been re-elected in a landslide.
Instead, his legacy can really be summed up as cowardly having not pardoned Assange or Snowden (both of whom he shared enemies with in the national security apparatus) or done anything to address poverty in the country. If anything can be said positively about his agenda, he inadvertently revealed just how little both the Republican and Democratic party elite care about normal people.
So where do we go from here in 2021?
The GME rally was fascinating to watch - there is a real possibility markets will change because of mob oriented plays in the market. To say the least, the assault on Melvin Capital presents an existential risk to the business model of short sellers that base their positions on posted research into companies - inadvertently in the process advertising their own potential weakness to a mob attack from small investors.
This can be seen as a good thing when shorts are speculative and dishonest but could also prevent the market from effectively policing itself. For instance, it was a short seller Kynikos Associates led by Jim Chanos that outed the Enron fraud.
Meanwhile some of the largest value investors appear to have moved to cash positions in fear of a large scale correction while retail and institutional investors continue to chase cryptocurrency dreams as well as tech valuations. The challenge is really that the securities markets are entirely propped up by the central bank system internationally and that business fundamentals across asset classes become increasingly difficult to measure. Maybe this opacity means a much larger correction is coming but on the other hand Japan has basically been using its central bank to prop up companies since the 1990s - in a period of stagnation and deflation.
Its anyone's guess as to whether the printing press and quantitative easing remain able to prop up the stock markets and the wealthy who own most of these assets or not. Socialism and direct support to the tune of hundreds of billions for rich people while poor people become trapped at desperation levels of poverty. In Florida of all places over 60 percent of the population voted and supported the staggered implementation of a $15 dollar minimum wage attracting both democratic and republican support. The democrats can't apparently reconcile that the majority of the country supports these types of initiatives while also despising virtue signaling woke nonsense.
As for the woke cult, they look likely to grow in the short term as Biden and the corporate democrats prefer to engage in identity politics (really no different than Trump cult identity politics) instead of trying to fix any of the country's problems. Meanwhile, the technology and social media companies unsure of their newfound position as guarantors of American democracy (and fear of regulation) have jumped on the censorship band wagon to try and kill Trump digitally at least in the short term.
Prediction: If Biden dies in office or decides to not run again and Trump is eligible to run in 2024 - he will crush Harris.
